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# STA117 | Understanding of Statistical Techniques | Statistic

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Question 1 (30 marks)

The Following data is generated from Maldives National Bureau of Statistics

Tourists Arrival from January 2010 to December 2014

 Years 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 219,516 247,617 255,867 293,112 321,561 Q2 163,116 200,350 202,201 246,555 279,952 Q3 186,071 221,205 233,540 278,608 299,491 Q4 223,214 262,161 266,417 306,927 303,853

 For the Above data, a) Explain the above data in detail. In your explanation, include [5] i) Overall Trend of the Tourist arrivals ii) Compare the quarters and explain special cases if any iii) Compare the years and explain the special case(s) if any b) Draw the graph of trend line and four quarter centered moving average line and a line with seasonal variation eliminated [15] c) Using centered moving average against time find a linear regression equation and forecast the number of Tourists arrival in 2015 [10]

Question 2 (25 marks)

Passenger arrivals at Male’ international Airport from 1985 to 2014 is given as follows

 Year Arrivals Year Arrivals Year Arrivals 1985 121924 1995 372349 2005 513796 1986 124622 1996 400300 2006 734733 1987 142102 1997 447823 2007 833436 1988 170027 1998 468766 2008 857991 1989 178712 1999 512077 2009 831924 1990 217953 2000 539208 2010 1008743 1991 220720 2001 530434 2011 1128238 1992 273982 2002 557459 2012 1165695 1993 305071 2003 636377 2013 1363930 1994 349085 2004 711388 2014 1495338

For the above data, an excel Output is created and the results are as follows (all arrival values are in (000).

Study the above output

 a) What is the equation of the regression line? [3] b) What is the coefficient of determination? [2] c) Prove by calculation that the standard error of estimate is 116.4451 (000) [5] d) Using the regression equation, forecast the number of passengers arrival at Male International Airport in 2015 and 2020. Comment your answer [10] e) Comment on the correlation coefficient and the goodness of fit of this regression line [5]

Question 3 (30 marks)

a) Use the data in Question 2 to find mean, median, mode, range, standard deviation coefficient of variation and quartiles. [15] b) Write a statistical report about the passenger arrives in Male International Airport using the figures in the table and using your have calculated in part a). Your report should be between 200 to 250 words. [15]